If you've just begun trading Forex, you probably want all the help you can get. Though Forex trading can be very lucrative, you'll want a Forex winning system that will work for you. There are several Forex killer systems available just as there are in marketing, sales, and other forms of business. You must find the Forex strategy that works for you, and develop good trading habits for long-term success. Here's a brief Forex winning guide for getting started.
Develop a Forex Trading System that You Can Stick With
Not only do you need a Forex strategy - you also need a system. You can have the best strategy in the world, but if you don't do it systematically, you could lose. Create a schedule of when you will do your Forex trading. Then, create a budget to manage your money coming in and going out. Just like operating any business, you'll have good and bad times. Stay with your Forex trading strategy through up-times and slumps for the best results.
Develop a Forex Trading Plan in Advance
Before the Forex market opens, you should already have a plan as to how you will trade. Don't get caught up in the moment. Carefully plan your investment as if you were making a big decision such as buying a home or a car. Even if the Forex trading amount seems small, treat it as if it were a million dollars. It could turn into that amount one day.
Expect Small Losses
If you plan to do Forex trading for the long haul, expect and accept small losses. They will occur no matter how well you know the market. A Forex winning system is one where you are prepared to accept the small losses in hopes of acquiring something greater in the future.
Be Patient
Remember, steady and slow is the key to any long-term Forex success. Don't sit staring at the quotes all day long! Take a break, enjoy life, and don't see a loss as the end of the world.
Avoid Forex Trading Strategies You Don't Understand
When developing a Forex winning strategy, avoid using methods you don't fully understand. Use helpful Forex guides and tutorials, but beware of Forex scams. There are many out there today - especially email scams. Be leery of companies who want to do your Forex trading for you. Develop a plan with the help of Forex experts, but please do your own trading or choose a reputable broker.
Develop an Exit Plan
Know when it's time to take your money and run! Don't hope for the best when all evidence points toward the worse. It's better to exit your trading with some of your money than to lose it all in a risky trade. Before you begin trading, set limits on how much you will invest - and stick with your limits.
Use this quick Forex guide to develop a strategy that works well for you. Forex trading doesn't have to be stressful. You can realize Forex trading success sooner than you think!
Sunday, September 30, 2007
Friday, September 28, 2007
Dollar continues weaker on growing expectations of further Fed rate cut
HONG KONG (Thomson Financial) - The US dollar continued its weak trend against the euro and the yen in afternoon trade in Asia on growing expectations of a further rate cut the by Federal Reserve next month following weak home sales data.
New home sales in the US declined 8.3 percent in August from a year earlier and most economists were predicting that the Fed will trim its benchmark rates by at least a quarter of a percentage point , helping revive the troubled housing market.
'The weak housing data confirmed in people's minds that the Fed is going to ease interest rates,' said Tim Condon, head of research at ING (nyse: IND - news - people ) Financial Markets in Singapore.
'While a rate cut is bullish for the equities and fixed-income markets in the US, unfortunately it is bearish for the US dollar,' said Condon.
At 1:00 pm (0500 GMT), the dollar was at 115.13 yen, down from 115.45 this morning in Sydney and 115.59 in late New York trade. The euro was at 1.4160 dollars, up from 1.4154 this morning.
The euro hit a record high of 1.4189 dollars Thursday.
The dollar will likely weaken to 115 yen and to 1.42 euro by year-end, before staging a recovery against the two major currencies in 2008, Condon said.
'The US economy will begin to recover in 2008 because of the rate cuts made this year and that will aid the dollar,' Condon said.
The dollar has been weakening against other major currencies including the euro after the Fed's unexpectedly steep half a percentage point rate cut on Sept 18, which made dollar-denominated assets less attractive to investors.
Other economic data that will be released this week are expected to give the Fed more reason to reduce its rates to keep the world's largest economy from slipping into a recession.
The US personal income and spending figures for August and construction spending data, due out later today, are not expected to point to any improvement in the economy.
GFT senior finance analyst Ian Copsey said the dollar has recovered from its lows in European trade, though the currency remains under pressure.
'General consensus is growing that the Fed will be forced to cut rates again and -- on the numbers seen last night -- there is little to suggest otherwise,' Copsey said.
The US economy grew at an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the second quarter, faster than the 0.6 percent expansion in the first quarter. The strong second-quarter growth was overshadowed by concerns that the economy would post slower growth in the second half of the year because of the subprime mortgage crisis that began around August.
Hong Kong 1:00 pm (0500 GMT)
US dollar
115.13 yen
1.1716 sfr
Euro
1.4160 usd
163.04 yen
1.6593 sfr
0.7000 stg
Sterling
2.0223 usd
232.85 yen
2.3696 sfr
Australian dollar
0.8829 usd
0.4364 stg
101.66 yen
New Zealand dollar
0.7573 usd
New home sales in the US declined 8.3 percent in August from a year earlier and most economists were predicting that the Fed will trim its benchmark rates by at least a quarter of a percentage point , helping revive the troubled housing market.
'The weak housing data confirmed in people's minds that the Fed is going to ease interest rates,' said Tim Condon, head of research at ING (nyse: IND - news - people ) Financial Markets in Singapore.
'While a rate cut is bullish for the equities and fixed-income markets in the US, unfortunately it is bearish for the US dollar,' said Condon.
At 1:00 pm (0500 GMT), the dollar was at 115.13 yen, down from 115.45 this morning in Sydney and 115.59 in late New York trade. The euro was at 1.4160 dollars, up from 1.4154 this morning.
The euro hit a record high of 1.4189 dollars Thursday.
The dollar will likely weaken to 115 yen and to 1.42 euro by year-end, before staging a recovery against the two major currencies in 2008, Condon said.
'The US economy will begin to recover in 2008 because of the rate cuts made this year and that will aid the dollar,' Condon said.
The dollar has been weakening against other major currencies including the euro after the Fed's unexpectedly steep half a percentage point rate cut on Sept 18, which made dollar-denominated assets less attractive to investors.
Other economic data that will be released this week are expected to give the Fed more reason to reduce its rates to keep the world's largest economy from slipping into a recession.
The US personal income and spending figures for August and construction spending data, due out later today, are not expected to point to any improvement in the economy.
GFT senior finance analyst Ian Copsey said the dollar has recovered from its lows in European trade, though the currency remains under pressure.
'General consensus is growing that the Fed will be forced to cut rates again and -- on the numbers seen last night -- there is little to suggest otherwise,' Copsey said.
The US economy grew at an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the second quarter, faster than the 0.6 percent expansion in the first quarter. The strong second-quarter growth was overshadowed by concerns that the economy would post slower growth in the second half of the year because of the subprime mortgage crisis that began around August.
Hong Kong 1:00 pm (0500 GMT)
US dollar
115.13 yen
1.1716 sfr
Euro
1.4160 usd
163.04 yen
1.6593 sfr
0.7000 stg
Sterling
2.0223 usd
232.85 yen
2.3696 sfr
Australian dollar
0.8829 usd
0.4364 stg
101.66 yen
New Zealand dollar
0.7573 usd
OUTLOOK - Indonesia August trade surplus 3.17-3.66 billion US dollars
JAKARTA (Thomson Financial) - Indonesia is expected to post a trade surplus of between 3.17 billion and 3.66 billion US dollars in August as imports outpaced exports, economists polled by Thomson Financial said.
The Central Bureau of Statistics will announce the trade data on Monday.
Seven out of nine economists surveyed are looking at a surplus of 3.17-3.5 billion US dollars, or below the 3.55 billion US dollar surplus recorded in July, while two said they were expecting a higher figure in the range of 3.6-3.66 billion US dollars.
August exports are likely to have grown by 5-14.4 percent year-on-year while imports grew 5-16.5 percent, the economists said.
Exports grew to 9.81 billion dollars in July from 9.42 billion in June, while imports rose to 6.26 billion dollars from 5.93 billion.
Bank Internasional Indonesia economist Juniman said he expects exports to fall slightly to 9.76 billion US dollars in August from 9.81 billion in July, while imports picked up slightly to 6.31 billion US dollars from 6.26 billion in July.
"Exports were slightly lower in August partly due to a slight fall in demand from some of our trading partners, in particular the US, probably due to the subprime crisis," Juniman said.
Citigroup economist Anton Gunawan said the trade surplus was lower in August as some commodity prices such as rubber and vegetable oil fell in August, while at the same time, the price of some non-oil and gas imports rose.
Gunawan expects Indonesia's trade surplus to drop to 3.17 billion US dollars in August from 3.55 billion in July.
He said exports of certain non-oil and gas products looks "relatively stable", such as unwoven garments, machineries, wood and wood products.
"We expect imports of capital goods to pick up gradually in line with the increasing economic and investment activities," Gunawan added.
DBS economist Su Sian Lim said overall, Indonesia's trade surplus has been "largely stable" this year.
"Non-oil exports have been growing strongly, thanks in large part to the robust demand for crude palm oil (CPO). However this has been offset by firm import growth, which is reflecting the strengthening in domestic demand," Su Sian said.
Below is a summary of the June trade surplus forecasts of the different brokerages as well as their export and import growth projections:
Citigroup: 3.17 billion US dollars; up 7.9 percent yr-on-yr, up 12.2 percent yr-on-yr
DBS: 3.4 billion US dollars; up 11.1 percent yr-on-yr; up 14.0 percent yr-on-yr
Ideaglobal : 3.4 billion US dollars; up 10.7 percent yr-on-yr, up 14.1 percent yr-on-yr
ING: 3.42 billion US dollars; up 12 percent yr-on-yr; up 15 percent yr-on-yr
BII: 3.45 billion US dollars, up 9.49 percent yr-on-yr, up 10.58 percent yr-on-yr
Mandiri Sekuritas: 3.46 billion US dollars, up 13.4 percent yr-on-yr, up 16.5 percent yr-on-yr
Action Economics: 3.5 billion US dollars, up 13 percent yr-on-yr, up 15.5 percent yr-on-yr
BNI: 3.6 billion US dollars, up 5 percent yr-on-yr, up 5 percent yr-on-yr
Lippo Bank: 3.66 billion US dollars, up 14.4 percent yr-on-yr, up 15.85 percent yr-on-yr
(1 US dollar = 9,140 rupiah)
The Central Bureau of Statistics will announce the trade data on Monday.
Seven out of nine economists surveyed are looking at a surplus of 3.17-3.5 billion US dollars, or below the 3.55 billion US dollar surplus recorded in July, while two said they were expecting a higher figure in the range of 3.6-3.66 billion US dollars.
August exports are likely to have grown by 5-14.4 percent year-on-year while imports grew 5-16.5 percent, the economists said.
Exports grew to 9.81 billion dollars in July from 9.42 billion in June, while imports rose to 6.26 billion dollars from 5.93 billion.
Bank Internasional Indonesia economist Juniman said he expects exports to fall slightly to 9.76 billion US dollars in August from 9.81 billion in July, while imports picked up slightly to 6.31 billion US dollars from 6.26 billion in July.
"Exports were slightly lower in August partly due to a slight fall in demand from some of our trading partners, in particular the US, probably due to the subprime crisis," Juniman said.
Citigroup economist Anton Gunawan said the trade surplus was lower in August as some commodity prices such as rubber and vegetable oil fell in August, while at the same time, the price of some non-oil and gas imports rose.
Gunawan expects Indonesia's trade surplus to drop to 3.17 billion US dollars in August from 3.55 billion in July.
He said exports of certain non-oil and gas products looks "relatively stable", such as unwoven garments, machineries, wood and wood products.
"We expect imports of capital goods to pick up gradually in line with the increasing economic and investment activities," Gunawan added.
DBS economist Su Sian Lim said overall, Indonesia's trade surplus has been "largely stable" this year.
"Non-oil exports have been growing strongly, thanks in large part to the robust demand for crude palm oil (CPO). However this has been offset by firm import growth, which is reflecting the strengthening in domestic demand," Su Sian said.
Below is a summary of the June trade surplus forecasts of the different brokerages as well as their export and import growth projections:
Citigroup: 3.17 billion US dollars; up 7.9 percent yr-on-yr, up 12.2 percent yr-on-yr
DBS: 3.4 billion US dollars; up 11.1 percent yr-on-yr; up 14.0 percent yr-on-yr
Ideaglobal : 3.4 billion US dollars; up 10.7 percent yr-on-yr, up 14.1 percent yr-on-yr
ING: 3.42 billion US dollars; up 12 percent yr-on-yr; up 15 percent yr-on-yr
BII: 3.45 billion US dollars, up 9.49 percent yr-on-yr, up 10.58 percent yr-on-yr
Mandiri Sekuritas: 3.46 billion US dollars, up 13.4 percent yr-on-yr, up 16.5 percent yr-on-yr
Action Economics: 3.5 billion US dollars, up 13 percent yr-on-yr, up 15.5 percent yr-on-yr
BNI: 3.6 billion US dollars, up 5 percent yr-on-yr, up 5 percent yr-on-yr
Lippo Bank: 3.66 billion US dollars, up 14.4 percent yr-on-yr, up 15.85 percent yr-on-yr
(1 US dollar = 9,140 rupiah)
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
Dollar resumes fall
The dollar resumed its fall against the euro Tuesday, the fourth consecutive day of record lows, after a pair of economic reports pointed to the possibility of further interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
The euro rose to its fourth consecutive record high, $1.4153, after worrying consumer confidence and home sales data were released Tuesday morning. By late afternoon in New York, the 13-nation euro was at $1.4146 compared with $1.4087 late Monday.
The New York-based Conference Board said worries about jobs and the economy drove the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index for September to 99.8, below analysts' expectations. The index is at its lowest level since November 2005.
U.S. economic concerns were compounded by two housing reports. Sales of existing homes fell for a sixth straight month in August, pushing sales to the lowest point since 2002 because of turmoil in credit markets, a second report showed. U.S. home prices declined in July, posting their steepest drop in 16 years.
The declines may cause the Federal Reserve to lower its benchmark interest rate further, said David Jones, chief markets analyst at CMC Markets in London.
"It's clearly still too soon for last week's rate cut by the Fed to be taking any effect, but the question is now what happens at the two remaining meetings this year," he said.
It was a half-point interest rate cut to 4.75 percent by the U.S. central bank last week that dragged the dollar down. That came in response to the market turbulence in the fallout from the subprime mortgage crisis, and many analysts see more rate cuts ahead.
Lower interest rates, used to jump-start an economy, can weaken a currency as investors transfer funds to countries where their deposits and fixed-income investments bring higher returns.
A weaker dollar makes vacations in Europe more expensive for U.S. travelers and could make European-made products more expensive for American consumers. But the lower dollar versus the euro also makes U.S. exports more competitive in Europe, which could benefit American manufacturers.
In other New York trading, the dollar slipped to 114.55 yen from 114.88 yen after Yasuo Fukuda, who has promised to bring stability and moderation to Japan's political scene, was elected prime minister.
The dollar rose against the British pound, to $2.0180 from $2.0214.
The dollar fell against the Swiss franc, from 1.1730 late Monday to 1.1661, and it rose slightly against the Canadian currency, to 1.0014 from 1.0011.
The euro rose to its fourth consecutive record high, $1.4153, after worrying consumer confidence and home sales data were released Tuesday morning. By late afternoon in New York, the 13-nation euro was at $1.4146 compared with $1.4087 late Monday.
The New York-based Conference Board said worries about jobs and the economy drove the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index for September to 99.8, below analysts' expectations. The index is at its lowest level since November 2005.
U.S. economic concerns were compounded by two housing reports. Sales of existing homes fell for a sixth straight month in August, pushing sales to the lowest point since 2002 because of turmoil in credit markets, a second report showed. U.S. home prices declined in July, posting their steepest drop in 16 years.
The declines may cause the Federal Reserve to lower its benchmark interest rate further, said David Jones, chief markets analyst at CMC Markets in London.
"It's clearly still too soon for last week's rate cut by the Fed to be taking any effect, but the question is now what happens at the two remaining meetings this year," he said.
It was a half-point interest rate cut to 4.75 percent by the U.S. central bank last week that dragged the dollar down. That came in response to the market turbulence in the fallout from the subprime mortgage crisis, and many analysts see more rate cuts ahead.
Lower interest rates, used to jump-start an economy, can weaken a currency as investors transfer funds to countries where their deposits and fixed-income investments bring higher returns.
A weaker dollar makes vacations in Europe more expensive for U.S. travelers and could make European-made products more expensive for American consumers. But the lower dollar versus the euro also makes U.S. exports more competitive in Europe, which could benefit American manufacturers.
In other New York trading, the dollar slipped to 114.55 yen from 114.88 yen after Yasuo Fukuda, who has promised to bring stability and moderation to Japan's political scene, was elected prime minister.
The dollar rose against the British pound, to $2.0180 from $2.0214.
The dollar fell against the Swiss franc, from 1.1730 late Monday to 1.1661, and it rose slightly against the Canadian currency, to 1.0014 from 1.0011.
Monday, September 24, 2007
Forex - Dollar stays weak on expectations for poor data this week
LONDON, Sep. 24, 2007 (Thomson Financial delivered by Newstex) -- Major currencies stayed range-bound, with the dollar floundering ahead of this week's US data that are expected to show continued weakness in housing and consumer confidence, boosting expectations for further cuts in US interest rates.
The dollar fell to a new all-time low against the single European currency of 1.4129 usd this morning before edging back up, and it was also weaker against the pound and yen.
A cut in the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate of 50 basis points, to 4.75 pct, sparked the recent run of dollar weakness, exacerbating the pressure on the currency from the subprime mortgage crisis and credit crunch.
Currency analysts expect the dollar to fall further this week.
'The general tone of the US data this week is likely to compound expectations for further cuts in US interest rates - with market attention now settling on the possibility of a further quarter point-cut at the October
Federal Open Markets Committee meeting,' said economists at Bear Stearns. (NYSE:BSC)
They predict the dollar will drop to as low as 1.50 usd to the euro in the coming months.
Data on Tuesday are expected to show US consumer confidence falling to 104.5 in September from 105 in August, and existing home sales dropping to 5.445 mln in August from 5.75 mln the prior month, according to forecasts from Thomson IFR Markets.
Before that, indications on the Fed's thinking will come from speeches by FOMC member Richard Fisher and chairman Ben Bernanke today, and Bernanke again on Thursday.
Elsewhere, euro zone data this week will be scrutinised for signs that the strong euro is harming the area's economy. Foremost among the data will be Germany's IFO index of business confidence on Tuesday and euro zone consumer price inflation figures later on.
'The mounting strength of the euro is building pressure on the ECB to ease the pain with a cut in rates - which should be justified by the weakening economic confidence and growth picture in the euro zone,' said the Bear Stearns economists.
They expect a weaker IFO reading and a sharp rise in the headline HICP inflation figure.
Meanwhile, the yen was steady after the news that Yasuo Fukuda will become prime minister of Japan following his election as president of the Liberal Democrat party yesterday.
'His victory was well anticipated by the market and hence is likely to have little, if not any, impact on the market,' said BNP Paribas (OOTC:BPRBF) analysts.
London 0811 GMT Hong Kong 1.00 pm (0500 GMT)
US dollar
yen 114.94 down from 115.05
sfr 1.1700 down from 1.1705
Euro
usd 1.4119 up from 1.4102
yen 162.25 down from 162.28
sfr 1.6526 up from 1.6506
stg 0.6966 up from 0.6960
Sterling
usd 2.0254 unchanged 2.0254
yen 232.77 down from 233.06
sfr 2.3714 up from 2.3708
Australian dollar
usd 0.8666 up from 0.8662
stg 0.4277 down from 0.4376
yen 99.57 down from 99.67
The dollar fell to a new all-time low against the single European currency of 1.4129 usd this morning before edging back up, and it was also weaker against the pound and yen.
A cut in the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate of 50 basis points, to 4.75 pct, sparked the recent run of dollar weakness, exacerbating the pressure on the currency from the subprime mortgage crisis and credit crunch.
Currency analysts expect the dollar to fall further this week.
'The general tone of the US data this week is likely to compound expectations for further cuts in US interest rates - with market attention now settling on the possibility of a further quarter point-cut at the October
Federal Open Markets Committee meeting,' said economists at Bear Stearns. (NYSE:BSC)
They predict the dollar will drop to as low as 1.50 usd to the euro in the coming months.
Data on Tuesday are expected to show US consumer confidence falling to 104.5 in September from 105 in August, and existing home sales dropping to 5.445 mln in August from 5.75 mln the prior month, according to forecasts from Thomson IFR Markets.
Before that, indications on the Fed's thinking will come from speeches by FOMC member Richard Fisher and chairman Ben Bernanke today, and Bernanke again on Thursday.
Elsewhere, euro zone data this week will be scrutinised for signs that the strong euro is harming the area's economy. Foremost among the data will be Germany's IFO index of business confidence on Tuesday and euro zone consumer price inflation figures later on.
'The mounting strength of the euro is building pressure on the ECB to ease the pain with a cut in rates - which should be justified by the weakening economic confidence and growth picture in the euro zone,' said the Bear Stearns economists.
They expect a weaker IFO reading and a sharp rise in the headline HICP inflation figure.
Meanwhile, the yen was steady after the news that Yasuo Fukuda will become prime minister of Japan following his election as president of the Liberal Democrat party yesterday.
'His victory was well anticipated by the market and hence is likely to have little, if not any, impact on the market,' said BNP Paribas (OOTC:BPRBF) analysts.
London 0811 GMT Hong Kong 1.00 pm (0500 GMT)
US dollar
yen 114.94 down from 115.05
sfr 1.1700 down from 1.1705
Euro
usd 1.4119 up from 1.4102
yen 162.25 down from 162.28
sfr 1.6526 up from 1.6506
stg 0.6966 up from 0.6960
Sterling
usd 2.0254 unchanged 2.0254
yen 232.77 down from 233.06
sfr 2.3714 up from 2.3708
Australian dollar
usd 0.8666 up from 0.8662
stg 0.4277 down from 0.4376
yen 99.57 down from 99.67
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