JAKARTA (Thomson Financial) - Indonesia is expected to post a trade surplus of between 3.17 billion and 3.66 billion US dollars in August as imports outpaced exports, economists polled by Thomson Financial said.
The Central Bureau of Statistics will announce the trade data on Monday.
Seven out of nine economists surveyed are looking at a surplus of 3.17-3.5 billion US dollars, or below the 3.55 billion US dollar surplus recorded in July, while two said they were expecting a higher figure in the range of 3.6-3.66 billion US dollars.
August exports are likely to have grown by 5-14.4 percent year-on-year while imports grew 5-16.5 percent, the economists said.
Exports grew to 9.81 billion dollars in July from 9.42 billion in June, while imports rose to 6.26 billion dollars from 5.93 billion.
Bank Internasional Indonesia economist Juniman said he expects exports to fall slightly to 9.76 billion US dollars in August from 9.81 billion in July, while imports picked up slightly to 6.31 billion US dollars from 6.26 billion in July.
"Exports were slightly lower in August partly due to a slight fall in demand from some of our trading partners, in particular the US, probably due to the subprime crisis," Juniman said.
Citigroup economist Anton Gunawan said the trade surplus was lower in August as some commodity prices such as rubber and vegetable oil fell in August, while at the same time, the price of some non-oil and gas imports rose.
Gunawan expects Indonesia's trade surplus to drop to 3.17 billion US dollars in August from 3.55 billion in July.
He said exports of certain non-oil and gas products looks "relatively stable", such as unwoven garments, machineries, wood and wood products.
"We expect imports of capital goods to pick up gradually in line with the increasing economic and investment activities," Gunawan added.
DBS economist Su Sian Lim said overall, Indonesia's trade surplus has been "largely stable" this year.
"Non-oil exports have been growing strongly, thanks in large part to the robust demand for crude palm oil (CPO). However this has been offset by firm import growth, which is reflecting the strengthening in domestic demand," Su Sian said.
Below is a summary of the June trade surplus forecasts of the different brokerages as well as their export and import growth projections:
Citigroup: 3.17 billion US dollars; up 7.9 percent yr-on-yr, up 12.2 percent yr-on-yr
DBS: 3.4 billion US dollars; up 11.1 percent yr-on-yr; up 14.0 percent yr-on-yr
Ideaglobal : 3.4 billion US dollars; up 10.7 percent yr-on-yr, up 14.1 percent yr-on-yr
ING: 3.42 billion US dollars; up 12 percent yr-on-yr; up 15 percent yr-on-yr
BII: 3.45 billion US dollars, up 9.49 percent yr-on-yr, up 10.58 percent yr-on-yr
Mandiri Sekuritas: 3.46 billion US dollars, up 13.4 percent yr-on-yr, up 16.5 percent yr-on-yr
Action Economics: 3.5 billion US dollars, up 13 percent yr-on-yr, up 15.5 percent yr-on-yr
BNI: 3.6 billion US dollars, up 5 percent yr-on-yr, up 5 percent yr-on-yr
Lippo Bank: 3.66 billion US dollars, up 14.4 percent yr-on-yr, up 15.85 percent yr-on-yr
(1 US dollar = 9,140 rupiah)
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