Thursday, May 31, 2007

SW Signs With Galileo: Low-Cost Carrier's Content To Be More Widely Available

By Jay Boehmer

MAY 21, 2007 -- Southwest Airlines last week signed a distribution agreement with Galileo, offering its published fares and inventory—not including exclusive Web fares—to subscribers of the global distribution system. The 10-year agreement is signed, but Southwest director of corporate sales Rob Brown said its content would not go live in the Galileo channel until later this year, as there's "still technical work that needs to be done to connect the two."

The deal gives Southwest more meaningful penetration in a channel it largely has shunned, except for limited participation in Sabre, while giving further access of its fares to corporate travelers.

Galileo and Southwest in a statement said subscribers will pay a fee to access content, but the carrier and GDS would not yet disclose the pricing, and even Galileo subscribers said they have not received specifics. "Details of the cost to agents for this Southwest content will be available shortly," the companies said.

"Because of the specifics of the agreement, there's a lot I can't share, but we are going to participate at their entry level of participation. That's the initial arrangement. Over time, it's going to evolve to a more interactive level," Brown said.

Corporate Solutions Group consultant Bob Lichtman said the agreement has been a long time coming and would be welcomed by corporate travel buyers. "It did surprise me," Lichtman said. "It's something that should have happened years and years ago. Sabre is the only GDS that has held at least minimal content with Southwest for years. This is a big deal. I can't believe it took so long."

While Brown said there are no immediately pending agreements with other distributors, he noted, "In this changing and crazy world, we're always having conversations with technology companies and other distribution channels. As opportunities are presented to Southwest, we'll evaluate them accordingly."

Southwest CEO Gary Kelly last Wednesday during a shareholder meeting said the initiative is one of many in the pipeline that he hopes will spur new forms of passenger revenue at Southwest, which is seeing some softness in domestic demand. "This is a significant revenue growth opportunity for Southwest Airlines and will help us further penetrate that business travel segment," CEO Kelly said of the Galileo agreement.

Southwest always had garnered the bulk of its business through direct distribution channels. However, amid new distribution economics that entered the industry last year, GDSs have become more affordable for many domestic airlines. Southwest vice president of marketing, sales and distribution Kevin Krone last month told BTN that even though the expense had come down for other carriers, it still would come at an additional cost to Southwest, but still did not rule out the channel. Last week, Kelly said, "this agreement with Galileo provides a very cost-effective distribution alternative for us and one that supports our low-cost leadership position."

JetBlue last year began relisting in all of the major GDSs, noting a windfall of incremental revenue (BTN, Nov. 6, 2006), but Southwest remained steadfast, still preferring its Swabiz booking tool as the direct link to corporate travel buyers. The tool has gained favor with some companies, but kept Southwest penetration down at others (BTN, April 2). "Swabiz, for what it is, was a decent product—easy to use, very functional," Lichtman said. "However, in large organizations, it takes you away from that centralized database that everybody uses for all the other travel. It makes the process of procuring air much more difficult for a larger organization."

Marc Casto, president and COO of Santa Clara, Calif.-based travel management company Casto Travel, said, "Southwest is one of the top carriers for many of our clients, given our location. Our clients want to have access to inventory at all times—whether that is online or offline."

Casto said his agency, which is a Galileo shop, currently uses Swabiz and BookingBuilder to access Southwest content. "Swabiz is in our estimate a good bridge, but an insufficient bridge, particularly as it relates to the integration of travel data for management reports," Casto said. "By including it within the GDS, it will allow us to give more accurate and detailed reports to our clients."

Southwest in the past participated only in the Sabre GDS to a limited degree. "We've been in Sabre for years, but that's really for brick-and-mortar travel agencies. There's no online distribution of us," Krone said last year. "We're probably in our about 20th year with them, but we've not paid to be in any other CRS."

Sabre said in a statement last week said, "We are pleased to see the ongoing recognition of the importance of the travel agency channel and their corporate customers and believe it confirms the value and importance of the GDS channel for all size carriers."

Lichtman said Galileo's access to Southwest content "will add more competition to Sabre, which is a good thing. The fact that the GDSs have been more competitive in their fees to airlines I'm sure played a big role in the deal."

Meanwhile, Kelly said Southwest plans new sources of passenger revenues "so we can rely less on fare increases." He noted that while Southwest recorded record load factors in the past year, it still is below the industry leaders. Kelly also hinted at broadening partnerships with other airlines a la the carrier's codeshare partnership with ATA Airlines. "Our plan in 2009 is to expand our codeshare network and our revenues with near international destinations. We'll consider far international destinations, like Europe or Asia, after that." Kelly said the carrier has invested in new codeshare systems and reservations capabilities.

USD Buoyed, Eyes MPC Minutes

by Korman Tam

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At 4:30 AM May MPC Vote (exp 8-1, prev 2-7)
At 5:00 AM Eurozone March Industrial Orders m/m (exp 1.1%, prev –0.7%)
Eurozone March Industrial Orders y/y (exp 6.9%, prev 4.7%)
At 8:30 AM Canada April Leading (exp 0.4%, prev 0.4%)

The major currency pairs are little changed with the greenback holding onto its gains against the majors, buoyed near 121.60 versus the yen and 1.3450 against the euro. The meeting between US Treasury Secretary Paulson and Chinese officials was essentially a non-event in the foreign exchange market. Paulson urged China to hasten its currency reform, only to be rebuffed from China’s Vice Premier Yi, who said that pressure from the US would be counterproductive and merely complicate matters.

The FX market continues to consolidate amid a dearth of key news or data at the start of the week. The calendar picks up in the coming session with the release of the Bank of England’s MPC meeting minutes from May, in which the Bank hiked rates by 25-bp. Traders will scrutinize the minutes for clues on whether additional tightening can be expected from the BoE, particularly following its previous statement in which it downplayed further risks to inflation. The Bank had previously stated that it expects CPI to trend back toward its 2% target over the course of this year, tempering market expectations for aggressive tightening in the coming months. Meanwhile, a 25-basis point ECB rate hike in June is already fully priced-in and we anticipate another 25-basis point hike in Q4, lifting the ECB’s benchmark lending rate to 4.25% by year-end.

Dollar Slipped On Existing Home Sales

by Yan Xu

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The dollar slipped after a report indicated an unexpected decline in US existing home sales, re-igniting concern over the downturn of housing sector and the Fed interest rate cut possibility.

US existing homes sales declined 2.6% to an annual rate of 5.99 million units in April, below the estimate of 6.14 million. The tame housing data surprised the market, which had anticipated a number as robust as the new home sales released yesterday. The euro rose from around 1.3445 to as high as 1.3471, and the sterling gained 30 pips to 1.9868 versus the dollar.

With recent upbeat economic US data, the dollar rebounded versus the euro and sterling. The dollar has gained against the euro for four weeks, which constitutes the longest rally in 5 quarters. However, the dollar failed to break the 1.3415 level versus the euro following the surprisingly good new home sales. The 1.3410-15 area therefore became a base of the pair¡¯s consolidation range.

Thursday, May 24, 2007

Euro is looking for the line of least resistance

by Angelo Airaghi [Guest Analyst]
5/14/2007

After last week decision on interest rates, Euro remains well support over the long run against the U.S dollar. However, the short term scenario is not so decisive, as key technical levels must be overcome.

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No rate cuts in the near future in the U.S.
As expected, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 5.25% during last Wednesday¡¦s Federal Open Market Committee (FOCM) meeting. The closing statement was in line with previous declarations and suggests no rate cuts in the near future. In summary, the Fed acknowledges a decline in the U.S. first quarter economic growth and remains concern about inflation risks. The Fed¡¦s decision to put inflation above growth might be inspired by the conviction that, albeit the slow down is becoming evident, the overall economic picture is not has bad as it has been sometimes painted. Manufacturing and non-manufacturing new orders both showed solid gains two weeks ago. Job creation numbers, on the other hand, were below expectations, but the average hourly earnings are still near 4% year-over-year pace of growth.

In effect, latest data might anticipate some moderation of consumer demand in the second quarter of the year. However, with inflation still strong and increasing, the Federal Reserve should react to negative numbers with prudence. Considering that labor market remains active and wages are climbing steadily. In April, the advanced report on retail sales printed a decline of 0.2%, while expectations were for a 0.5% increase. March sales were changed upward to show a 1% rise from the previously reported 0.7% move. Sales increased at a 3.2% rate in April compared to the month of April of 2006, less than the 4.4% gain registered in March and only a few ticks below the 3.4% move averaged in the first three months of the 2007. Gains were seen mainly in home furnishing stores, mail orders and internet retailers. Losses were registered in garden equipment stores, building materials, clothing and motor vehicle/parts dealers.


Angelo Airaghi is a Commodity Trading Advisor, registered with the National Futures Association and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. He has been an active professional since 1990 working for major international financial companies. In the past 10 years, Angelo Airaghi has been an analyst and commentator for national and international media.

Euro is at important support levels

by Angelo Airaghi [Guest Analyst]
5/21/2007

After reaching 2004 highs, the European currency has been consolidating within a tight range from 1.3460 to 1.3690. The medium/long term trends are still pointing upward. However, failure for the Euro to overcome key technical points could increase selling pressure.

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U.S. consumer spending should moderate, but only marginally

Following last week Producer Price Index (PPI), which was basically in line with expectations, the seasonally adjusted all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in April, below market forecast. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, advanced 0.2%. Year-over-year, the CPI increased 2.6% in April (March rate was 2.8%) and the core CPI moved 2.3% (March rate was 2.5%). The greatest pressure is coming from the energy components, but food prices are rising as well. The headline Producer Price Index (PPI), on the other hand, increased 0.7% in April, only a fraction above market expectations for a 0.6%. Here again the energy sector was the main traction for prices (+3.4%). Core prices were unchanged month over month for the second consecutive month, while expectations anticipated a 0.2% rise. Yearly, the figure remained at 3.2% with core prices shrinking to 1.5% from 1.7% in March. While both PPI and CPI indexes showed some improvements compared to previous months, which could have positive effects on growth, the overall inflation’s trend is pointing upward.


Angelo Airaghi is a Commodity Trading Advisor, registered with the National Futures Association and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. He has been an active professional since 1990 working for major international financial companies. In the past 10 years, Angelo Airaghi has been an analyst and commentator for national and international media.

Sunday, May 13, 2007

Margin Trading

Trading on a margin in foreign exchange is not as complicated as some may make it out to be. The easiest way to view margin trading is like this:

When a trader trades on margin he is using a free short-term credit allowance from the institution that is offering the margin. This short-term credit allowance is used to purchase an amount of currency that greatly exceeds the account value of the trader. Let's take the following example:

Example: Trader Y has an account with EUR 50'000 with FOREX International. He trades ticket sizes of 1'000'000 EUR/USD. This equates to a margin ratio of 5% (50'000 is 5% of 1'000'000).

How can Trader Y trade 20 times the amount of money he has at his disposal?

FOREX International temporarily gives him the necessary credit to make the transaction he is interested in making. Without margin,Trader Y would only be able to buy or sell tickets of 50'000 at a time. On standard accounts FOREX International applies a minimum 1% margin. By trading with FOREX International, Trader Y has the capacity to make transactions up to 5'000'000 EUR at a time.

Margin serves as collateral to cover any losses that you might incur. Since nothing is actually being purchased or sold for delivery, the only requirement, and indeed the only real purpose for having funds in your account, is for sufficient margin.

The margin capacity FOREX International offers is a reflection of our willingness to provide the trader with the level of risk he wishes to adopt. We do not recommend trading with full 1% margin capacity as this involves a large amount of risk. However, the choice is left to the trader to make transactions that meet his appetite for risk.

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